
lculating market returns is all in the measuring
市场收益的测算
The stock market goes up and down. Suppose its level alternates each year between 50 and 100, with no upward or downward trend. What is the capital return on the market?
股市有涨也有跌。假设每年的股价不是50就是100,没有上涨或下跌趋势。那么股市的资本回报率会有多大?
Common sense suggests the answer is zero. But is that common sense right? In the good years you obtain a return of 100 per cent. In the bad, the yield is minus 50 per cent. The average return is therefore 25 per cent. There is logic to that. If you invested the same amount every year, and sold at the end of a year, you would indeed make – on average – a very attractive return of 25 per cent a year.
根据常识,答案应该是零。但这一常识正确吗?在景气年份,你可以获得100%的回报率;在不景气年份,回报率则是负50%。因此平均收益率为25%。这是符合逻辑的。如果你每年都拿同样多的钱买股票,并在年末卖掉,那么平均算下来,实际上你每年会获得25%的回报率,这很有吸引力。
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